statistical anaylsis 2004

Weeks 4 and 5
Here are stats after the fourth week (incl. games against Orlando, Sacramento, and Milwaukee) and fifth week (incl. games against Houston and Seattle).

Player	PD	Eff	PD+Eff	Eff/48	PD/48	PV
1. Andrei Kirilenko	33 [33/28]	346[82/52]	379[115/80]	30.8	2.9	8.3
2. Carlos Arroyo	31 [26/0]	186 [47/0]	217 [73/0]	26.6	4.4	6.7
3. Matt Harpring	28 [21/16]	230 [58/35]	258 [79/51]	22.4	2.7	5.9
4. Greg Ostertag	21 [14/3]	188 [54/13]	209 [68/16]	21.9	2.4	3.7
5. D. Stevenson	20 [20/9]	124 [30/13]	144 [50/22]	14.1	2.3	3.4
6. Keon Clark	14 [-/-]	9 [-/-]	23 [-/-]	15.4	23.9	24.0
7. Sasha Pavlovic	-2 [0/1]	50 [3/8]	48 [3/9]	15.5	-0.6	-1.9
8. Maurice Williams	-4[-3/0]	36[4/22]	32[1/22]	18.3	-2.0	-3.3
9. Curtis Borchardt	-7[-13/9]	72[23/21]	65[10/30]	17.7	-1.7	-3.6
10. Raul Lopez	-12[-23/24]	109[21/20]	97[4/44]	17.7	-2.0	-4.8
11. Raja Bell	-13[-32/15]	122[5/29]	109[-27/44]	17.2	-1.8	-5.1
12. Ben Handlogten	-15[0/5]	32[0/2]	17[0/7]	32.9	-15.4	-17.4
13. Jarron Collins	-29[-28/10]	76[4/11]	47[-20/21]	14.9	-5.7	-9.9
Player of the week – week 4: Andrei Kirilenko (2nd time) Player of the week – week 5: Andrei Kirilenko (3rd time) Comments: Great turnaround: After three weeks Andrei Kirilenko had the worst PD on the team. Now, only two weeks later he suddenly is first on the PD list. So what does this great turnaround means? Well, first of all it indicates how well AK have been playing as of late, but it also exemplifies that the season still is young and that the stats still can change a lot. Great turnaround 2: The individual I least expected to play as well as he had so far is not any of the point guards, because I had high hopes for them, but rather DeShawn Stevenson. After the first week of the season I presented some stats here that showed how poorly he played last season. In each of the three games at the beginning of this season he managed to have a team worst PD, and thus things looked a lot like it did the year before. However, since then his PD has steadily improved (from -30 to +20). His official stats (per 48 min.) are just slightly better than last year, but the things that do not directly show up on the stat sheet - defense and execution – seem to be markedly improved. So, although I still consider him the weakest link in the starting unit, he’s no longer the liability he was last year. Hopefully he can continue to improve… Better to start!: The last two weeks the starting unit have had much better PDs than the subs (note that now the five regular starters occupy the five top spots on the PD list). The injury to Arroyo didn’t change this, in fact the difference between the starting unit and the subs became even more apparent by Raul Lopez stats for the last two weeks. In week 4 Lopez came of the bench and had a PD of -23. Compare that number to the team’s PD of +26 when he was on the bench. In week 5, on the other hand, when Lopez started, he had a PD of +24, while he was on the bench the team went just ±0. A coincidence?

Special this week: Stats by quarter – part 1
		FG%	^FT%	Reb	As	Pts	Pts/Qtr
1st	Jazz	49.0	78.1	158	103	356	23.7
	Opp	46.8	71.7	129	84	342	22.8
2nd	Jazz	40.4	76.1	135	73	293	19.5
	Opp	46.0	80.0	155	82	358	23.9
3rd	Jazz	44.8	75.2	169	77	365	24.3
	Opp>	40.0	83.5	133	74	339	22.6
4th	Jazz	45.3	81.1	165	66	383	25.5
	Opp	43.5	69.1	125	61	345	23.0
^{Note! In quarters 1, 3 and 4 the Jazz outscore their opponents by more than 5 points. However, in the dreaded 2nd quarter they lose by an average margin of 4.4 points…}

Stats week 3
Here are stats after the third week (incl. games against San Antonio, New Orleans, Minnesota, and Milwaukee).

Player	PD	Eff	PD+Eff	Eff/48	PD/48	PV
1. Keon Clark	14 [-]	9 [-]	23 [-]	15.4	23.9	26.9
2. Carlos Arroyo	5 [0]	139 [77]	144 [77]	26.9	1.0	4.9
3. Greg Ostertag	4 [-3]	121 [33]	125 [30]	19.8	0.7	5.3
4. Raja Bell	4 [-18]	88 [21]	92 [3]	17.6	0.8	4.4
3. Maurice Williams	-1 [6]	10 [0]	9 [6]	11.9	-1.2	0.2
4. Sasha Pavlovic	-3 [5]	39 [10]	36 [15]	18.1	-1.4	0.0
5. Curtis Borchardt	-3 [-25]	28 [21]	25 [-4]	15.1	-1.6	-0.3
6. Matt Harpring	-9 [6]	137 [57]	128 [63]	22.2	-1.5	-0.2
7. D. Stevenson	-9 [10]	81 [21]	72 [31]	13.5	-1.5	-0.3
8. Jarron Collins	-11 [-15]	61 [35]	50 [20]	14.7	-2.7	-2.1
9. Raul Lopez	-13 [-19]	68 [31]	55 [12]	17.1	-3.3	-3.1
10. Ben Handlogten	-20 [6]	30 [0]	10 [6]	37.4	-24.9	-25.6
11. Andrei Kirilenko	-28 [-18]	212 [63]	184 [45]	29.2	-3.9	-9.0

Player of the week: Carlos Arroyo (2nd time)

Comments:

Consistent scorers: Both Matt Harpring and Andrei Kirilenko have scored 10 points or more in each of the games they have played so far. Carlos Arroyo has scored at least 9 points each time he played.

Not cleaning the glass: Our three point guards have so far grabbed 4 offensive rebounds together! (Lopez 2, Williams 1, Arroyo 1).

Rookie Challenge: Lopez and Borchardt participants?
Normally, nine rookies are selected to face the sophomores in the Rookie Challenge game at All-Star weekend. Do any of the five Jazz rookies have a chance to get selected? Well, so far six rookies look like automatic selections: Carmelo Anthony, Jarvis Hayes, Dwyane Wade, T.J. Ford, Udonis Haslem, and Chris Bosh. (Lebron James will most likely be selected to the All-Star game by the fans and, therefore, not participate in the rookie game.) Thus three more rookies will most likely be added; probably one point guard and two big men.

There are three candidates for the point guard spot: Kirk Hinrich, Luke Ridnour, and Raul Lopez. Ridnour’s numbers have dropped lately and are currently not as high as for the other two. Hinrich averages 7.3 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, whereas Lopez averages 6.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. Thus the numbers appear to be fairly close. However, Hinrich gets his stats in 26 min/game while Lopez gets his in 19 min/game. Hinrich also manages to turn the ball over even more frequently than Lopez. In other words, the efficiency value for Lopez is much better than for Hinrich. Raul Lopez thus looks to have a good shot at being selected to the Rookie team.

Keith Bogans (swingman for the Orlando Magic) is currently averaging 28 min/game. His rebounding numbers are very good (7.0 reb/game), but apart from that his numbers are not so impressive. Still, because of the minutes he gets he is a likely candidate to get one of the two remaining spots. Other candidates that should be considered for the two remaining spots are big men Fransisco Elson (Nuggets), David West (Hornets), Darius Songaila (Kings), and Curtis Borchardt. These four all have similar numbers. If Borchardt can increase his point and rebound averages from 4.4 pts and 2.8 reb to about 6 pts and 4 reb he should have a decent shot at being selected.

All of the remaining three Jazz rookies, Sasha, Mo, and Big Ben, get too few minutes to have a shot at being selected.

Special this week: A look back at stats of 2002-03: Best and worst
	Best –	Worst –
Team FG%:	Ostertag 49.0%	Collins 42.0%
Individual, outside FG%	Cheaney 44.7%	Amaechi 19.2%
Opponent FG%:	Ostertag 41.4%	Stevenson 46.1%
Individual, inside FG%:	Harpring 69.9%	Amaechi 40.9%
Dunks	Kirilenko 113	Stockton, Jackson, Arroyo 0
Bonus FT:	Malone 49	Stevenson, Arroyo 2
Percentage of rebounds	Ostertag 15.6%	Arroyo 5.3%
Jazz rebounds per 48min:	Ostertag 43.4	Arroyo 36.2
Opp. rebounds per 48min	Collins 36.6	Arroyo 46.0
Jazz assists per 48min:	Ostertag 27.6	Amaechi 21.2
Opp. assists per 48min	Collins 18.2	Stevenson 21.4
Jazz steals per 48min:	Arroyo 10.8	Collins 6.8
Opp. steals per 48min:	Stockton 8.1	Arroyo 10.1
Jazz turnovers per 48min:	Cheaney, Stockton 15.9	Collins 18.7
Opp. turnovers per 48min	Arroyo, Amaechi 19.4	Jackson 14.6
Jazz blocks per 48min:	Kirilenko 6.5	Arroyo 4.7
Opp. blocks per 48min:	Cheaney, Massenburg, Ostertag, Jackson 4.8	Amaechi 6.8
Jazz points per 48min:	Stockton 97.6	Stevenson 87.3
Opp. points per 48min:	Ostertag 86.6	Stevenson 97.6
Jazz efficiency per 48min:	Ostertag 118.0	Stevenson 95.8
Opp. efficiency per 48min:	Ostertag 91.0	Stevenson 112.1
Shot attempts blocked:	Malone 4.7%	Amaechi 24.6%

Stats week 2
are stats after the second week (incl. games against Minnesota, Phoenix, Golden State, and Memphis).
Here

Player	PD	Eff	PD+Eff	Eff/48	PD/48	PV
1. Raja Bell	22 [23]	67 [29]	89 [52]	20.9	6.9	15.1
2. Curtis Borchardt	22 [22]	7 [7]	29 [29]	18.4	57.9	62.0
3. Keon Clark	14 [14]	9 [9]	23 [23]	15.4	23.9	26.7
4. Greg Ostertag	7 [1]	88 [69]	95 [70]	22.6	1.8	5.6
3. Raul Lopez	6 [27]	37 [38]	43 [65]	14.4	2.3	4.4
4. Carlos Arroyo	5 [-8]	62 [36]	67 [28]	23.8	1.9	3.7
5. Jarron Collins	4 [11]	26 [20]	30 [31]	11.6	1.8	3.1
6. Maurice Williams	-7 [-2]	10 [4]	3 [2]	12.5	-8.8	-9.9
7. Sasha Pavlovic	-8 [-8]	29 [5]	21 [-3]	18.7	-5.2	-6.7
8. Andrei Kirilenko	-10 [6]	149 [103]	139 [109]	33.7	-2.3	-8.0
9. Matt Harpring	-15 [-1]	80 [57]	65 [56]	24.2	-4.5	-9.7
10. D. Stevenson	-19 [11]	60 [42]	41 [53]	16.2	-5.1	-13.0
11. Ben Handlogten	-26 [-11]	30 [8]	4 [-3]	39.5	-34.2	-39.0

Legend:
Point differential (PD) is the difference between Jazz points and opponent points scored while the player is on the floor.

Player value (PV) = ((PD/MP)-((TPD-PD)/(TMP-MP)))*48, where

TPD = team point differential; MP = minutes played; and TMP = team minutes played

Efficiency (Eff) = Points - (FG missed + FT missed) + Rebounds + Assists + Steals - Turnovers + Blocks

Player of the week: Andrei Kirilenko

Comments:

Impressive debut: Curtis Borchardt.

His numbers, two points, three rebounds, two assists, and two blocks, were good, but nothing spectacular. What stands out though was his team leading PD of +22.

In the five games prior to the Memphis game Jazz were +18 with Tag on the floor and -26 without him. If Borchardt’s first game is any indication Jazz will no longer be as dependent on Tag as in the recent past. (In the Memphis game the team went -11 with Tag and +18 without him!)

After a slow start it seems like Raul Lopez has found his groove. His PD of +27 was team best this week. His efficiency also improved a lot this week.

Before this season a lot of people, myself included, believed that Matt Harpring’s scoring average might be similar to last season’s, but that his shooting percentage would drop significantly because of the absence of S&M. However, so far his scoring average is up from 17.6 to 18.2, despite playing fewer minutes per game, and his shooting percentage has only dropped marginally from 50.1 to 48.6%. Is it possible that he can even surpass his scoring numbers from last year?

Well, looking at the stats the answer is probably no! The reason behind the argument that Harpring’s FG% would drop is that he would not be the beneficiary of as many easy lay-ups as in the past. So far this seems to be the case, despite the numbers above! His percentage of shots taken inside is slightly down from 39 to 36%. But more important is the fact that the shots he gets inside appear to be more difficult than last year. At the moment he only converts 52% inside, whereas last year he made 70% of the inside shots. His FG% is still high because so far he has been shooting at a blistering 47% from the outside (compared to 39.5% last year), but it is unlikely that he will continue shooting that well.

In other words, if he cannot get more, and easier, inside shots his FG% is likely to drop, and the initial assumption might not be so far off…

Special this week: Jazz MVP 2002-03

Just for fun I have tried to find some reasonable formula for selecting the team MVP.

The MVP should IMO fulfil the following criteria:

•Play a lot of minutes

•Be productive

•Help the team outscore the opponents

Each player’s total efficiency (Eff) value takes into account the first two points, but does not measure the last one. The point differentials in a sense measure the last point. However, these values are affected by all five players on the floor and it can be a big difference playing with the starters versus playing with the reserves (this was the case last season). Individual point differential values (IPD) are therefore derived (these are adjusted for the PDs of the other players). The IPD can be interpreted as a measure of how many points each player contributes to the team’s PD. For example, Matt Harpring helped the team outscore the opponents by 143 points (note! The sum of all players IPD equals the team’s PD).

Using the Eff and IPD values we can now obtain values which take into account all three criteria given above. A player’s personal player value (PPV) is chosen to be given by Eff+2*IPD. The MVP is then the player with the best PPV.

Player	Eff	Eff/48	IPD	IPD/48	PPV	PPV/48
1. Karl Malone	1790	29.3	20.4	0.3	1831	29.9
2. Matt Harpring	1377	25.9	143.1	2.7	1663	31.2
3. John Stockton	1304	27.5	127.6	2.7	1559	32.9
4. Andrei Kirilenko	1277	27.7	36.2	0.8	1349	29.3
5. Greg Ostertag	806	20.1	193.3	4.8	1193	29.7
6. C. Cheaney	762	15.5	80.1	1.6	922	18.8
7. Scott Padgett	540	19.6	54.7	2.0	649	23.6
8. Mark Jackson	591	19.3	-71.4	-2.3	448	14.6
9. Carlos Arroyo	120	20.3	-9.2	-1.6	102	17.2
10. T. Massenburg	285	17.3	-116.5	-7.1	52	3.2
11. John Amaechi	76	7.7	-26.5	-2.7	23	2.3
12. Jarron Collins	120	13.7	-51.4	-5.9	17.1	2.0
11. D. Stevenson	194	12.2	-184.4	-11.6	-175	-11.0

MVP 2002-03: Karl Malone

Best productivity (highest PPV/48): John Stockton

Stats Week 1
Stats after the first week (incl. games against Portland and Dallas).

Player	PD	Eff	PD+Eff	Eff/48	PD/48	PV
1. Carlos Arroyo	13	26	39	29.9	15.0	42.4
2. Greg Ostertag	6	19	25	14.9	4.7	37.8
3. Sasha Pavlovic	0	24	24	27.3	0.0	16.0
4. Raja Bell	-1	38	37	36.2	-1.0	16.9
5. Mo Williams	-5	6	1	11.4	-9.5	-0.6
6. Jarron Collins	-7	6	-1	10.1	-11.8	-4.0
7. Matt Harpring	-14	23	9	19.9	-12.1	-7.4
8. Ben Handlogten	-15	22	7	38.5	-26.3	-24.2
9. Andrei Kirilenko	-16	46	30	33.7	-11.7	-8.5
10. Raul Lopez	-21	-1	-22	-1.8	-36.9	-39.0
11. D. Stevenson	-30	18	-12	15.7	-26.1	-40.2

Last seasons final stats.

Player	Min	PD	PD/48	PV^*
^{1. Greg Ostertag}	1927	289	7.2	9.4
^{2. Matt Harpring}	2556	267	5.0	7.4
^{3. John Stockton}	2273	243	5.1	6.5
^{4. Calbert Cheaney}	2353	198	4.0	4.1
^{5. Karl Malone}	2935	174	2.8	1.8
^{6. Scott Padgett}	1322	71	2.6	0.3
^{7. Andrei Kirilenko}	2214	93	2.0	-0.8
^{8. John Amaechi}	475	-20	-2.0	-5.0
^{9. Carlos Arroyo}	284	-14	-2.4	-5.1
^{10. Mark Jackson}	1469	-26	-0.8	-5.1
^{11. Jarron Collins}	421	-36	-4.1	-7.3
^{12. Tony Massenburg}	790	-95	-5.8	-10.2
^{13. Deshawn Stevenson}	761	-164	-10.3	-15.8

Comments:
This is the third season I have kept track of PDs. For the 1st time Tag had the best PV. Previous winners were:
00-01: John Stockton with a PV of 17.1.
01-02: Andrei Kirilenko with a PV of 15.1.
To put these values in perspective, note that only Garnett (22.8) and Nowitzki (18.0) surpassed a PV of 15 last season (according to 82games.com). Kirilenko’s PV was supposedly 2nd best in the 01-02 season behind Tim Duncan.

Scott Padgett had a bad second half last season and many Jazz fans wanted to get rid of him. It seemed like most fans, on the other hand, wanted to keep Tony Massenburg. The stats above indicate that Padgett and Massenburg were perhaps the most underrated and most overrated players, respectively, on last year’s squad.

It seems to me that one major factor why Massenburg became so popular was that he fouled hard. However, fouling hard and often (8.8/48min – most on the team) partly camouflaged that he was a poor defender. The opponent FG% was 46.0% when Massenburg was on the court – 2nd worst on the team (only Stevenson’s number, 46.1%, was worse).

One thing that has amazed me during the off-season is the number of Jazz fans that still believes that DeShawn Stevenson hasn’t got a fair chance; that he deserves to start; and so forth. According to 82games.com his PV last season was the worst in the entire league (of all players that got at least 10% of the playing time). Jazz lost with an average margin of 10.3 points (per 48 minutes) when he was on the court! That is beyond bad on a winning team going to the play-off.
His PVs have been -7.0 in his rookie season (hardly played), -8.4 in his 2nd season, and then -15.8 last season. In other words, as his role has increased the numbers have been getting worse.
After two games, it is still too early to draw any conclusions from the PDs and PVs, but I’m not surprised to see who is currently at the bottom of the PD list.

Notes:
Note! At 82games.com similar stats for all teams are presented. However, the Jazz stats are slightly off.

Last years stats: January February :: March April