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 Playing Against a Stacked Deck
 
By Ron Richards

 Recently I speculated that seeding the NBA playoffs from both conferences would make for a better playoff system than the one that exists now.

Surely the NBA and David Stern would argue that sooner or later fortunes of the Eastern Conference will change, and someday the West will be the weaker conference. The basic premise is that there are cycles in sports, and it’s just a matter of time.
Not likely. There is an inherent bias built into the NBA and its draft that almost mandates the superior conference in terms of wins and losses will maintain that superiority, and teams in the weaker conference will find it almost impossible to improve themselves with the playoff and draft system as it is now.

With a big thanks to fellow JazzHoopster Jon Colton, here is what the playoffs would look like if seeded one through sixteen regardless of conference.


1.Boston vs 16. Washington
2. Detroit vs 15. Portland
3. New Orleans vs 14. Toronto
4. Phoenix vs 13. Cleveland.
5. LA Lakers vs 12. Orlando
6. San Antonio vs 11. Denver
7. Dallas vs 10. Houston
8. Utah vs 9. Golden State

2nd Round
Utah vs Boston
Dallas vs Detroit
New Orleans vs San Antonio
Lakers vs Phoenix

3rd Round
Utah vs Lakers
Detroit vs San Antonio

FINALS
Utah vs San Antonio


Jon had slightly different results than I did, with Utah playing Phoenix in the Finals. These are my projections, and if I goofed on seeding, it’s my fault.

But what really intrigues me is that there are six Eastern Conference teams represented in the playoffs if the sixteen team playoff were to be implemented. As it is now, there are eight. Two or more of those teams have absolutely no business in the playoffs, and are actually hurt by making the playoffs. Fourteen teams vie for the lottery, and sixteen teams vie for the Championship.

That’s obvious. It means that two Eastern teams miss out on playoff money, and that’s a great hardship for those teams.

Bullpuckey. Horsefeathers. Chickendentures.

What it means is that the Western Conference will get stronger every year, with the Eastern Conference having little or no chance to keep up. Now this is fine for me, I live in Utah, and don’t really care what happens to the Knicks. Does anybody care what happens to the Knicks? Even their fans? Well……..Back to the subject at hand.

Why is there a draft system in place for the NBA? Not to mention a lottery system that supposedly evens out the chances for the weaker teams to eventually get better?

It’s to level the playing field, to give the weaker teams at least the opportunity to improve if they run their franchise with Smarts and Aplomb……Two things that are in short supply with some franchises…..Ahem.

Let me illustrate. Here is the draft order for the fourteen lottery teams, if the draft is held with the combined playoffs as Jon proposed.
  • Miami
  • Minnesota
  • Seattle
  • Memphis
  • New York
  • LA Clippers
  • Charlotte
  • Milwaukee
  • Indiana
  • Chicago
  • Atlanta
  • Philadelphia
  • New Jersey
  • Sacramento
With the present two conference system:
  • Miami
  • Minnesota
  • Seattle
  • Memphis
  • New York
  • LA Clippers
  • Milwaukee
  • Charlotte
  • Indiana
  • Chicago
  • Atlanta
  • Sacramento
  • Portland
  • Denver
In the present playoff and draft scenario, the Eastern Conference receives two fewer lottery picks than the Western Conference. Portland, a .500 team, gets a chance at the #1 pick, as does Denver, a .600 team.

The chances of the 13th and 14th seeded teams getting the #1 pick are very small, as everyone in Utah knows from previous drafts. But, it does happen, and has happened in the last fifteen years, to the Orlando Magic. And also, most drafts have a limited amount of players who have an impact on the league, and perhaps not coincidently, the cutoff is usually about on the last lottery pick.

While a difference of two teams picking and participating in the lottery at the high end of the lottery seems like a very small and insignificant thing, in reality it could make or break a franchise if a dominating player like Tim Duncan or LeBron James is in the lottery. Even having a lottery pick at all is a very valuable asset for a NBA team. In reality, the only way for an Eastern Conference team to succeed quickly without very judicious draft picks is to mortgage the future for the present, as the Boston Celtics have done this year. If they don’t win a Championship this year, their chances get slimmer and slimmer until in about three or four years it becomes non-existent for very, very long time.

The bottom line? If the present playoff and draft scenario continues to exist, the West will get stronger and the East will get weaker. Eastern Conference teams are playing against a stacked deck, just like the average Joe pulling the slots at Las Vegas this weekend. Don't get me wrong, if a team does it the right way, exercises great care and is very lucky, they can fight the system and succeed.

Personally, I think that’s only fair. For heaven’s sake, David Stern, don’t change a thing.