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A Look At the NBA Draft

By Ron Richards


I love the NBA Draft. My readers who know a little about me are already aware of that fact. What you might not be aware of is why.

It’s the weirdest, wackiest, stupidest exercise in futility, least understood and most confusing draft in any sport this side of badminton.

The various Mock Drafts, including mine, have players all over the board. One prominent board has a player in the first round, while another one doesn’t even list him in the draft at all, not even in the second round. It’s as if he doesn’t exist. Odds are, in ten years, he might as well not exist. He’s nowhere to be found.

There’s a good reason for all this confusion. No one, and I mean no one, has any real idea or even the slightest clue what these spoiled boy-men will look like in ten years. That is, if they’re still playing basketball and not leaning against a wall in the state pen…..Or leaning against a desk in a Wall Street investment firm…….That’s part of the problem as well. Player’s characters are being questioned and investigated with a fervor that Homeland Security might envy.

NBA GM’s and Talent Scouts for the thirty teams that exist in the NBA routinely go gray long before their time. Pick well, and you’re a hero. Pick a player who blows a knee out, or develops stress fractures in his foot, and you’re a bum. An unemployed bum. A bad pick can literally change the landscape of a franchise for years. A great pick, a lucky pick, can result in a Hall Of Famer, banners hanging from the rafters, and a very happy and generous owner. Many years ago, a very tall and talented center from Kentucky was chosen as the #2 pick by the Portland Blazers. A skinny six foot six inch guard from North Carolina was picked #3.

Everyone knows who #3 is, for he turned out to arguably be the greatest basketball player of all time. Only a basketball nut knows who #2 was. The crux of this lesson in history is that Portland’s GM made the right choice. He could have hardly guessed that his pick would never become the player he might have been because of recurring injuries. A cardinal rule in the NBA Draft that Frank Layden always mentions is that you can’t go wrong drafting height, for that’s something you can’t teach. It’s there or it’s not.

In every draft, there are those players who are assumed to be locks. Sure fire, absolute certainties…….The real deal. Future All-Stars and All-NBA, guaranteed, without a doubt.

Yeah. Ok. I have this beach property in Arizona…..

Maybe they like their ganja better than working on their conditioning and skills. Perhaps they just like money, status and women, and really don’t like playing basketball. Surprisingly, there are a lot of those characters right now in the NBA. Some of them have more children than division titles. Some of them have more convictions, and not the right type of convictions, than some inmates with a life companion named Killer.

So if you’re a GM, or the draft guru for an NBA franchise, just where do you begin?

First of all, you evaluate the talent your team has right now. Surprisingly, this isn’t the easy task it might seem to be. Coaches and GM’s and Owners all have an idea about each player, their strengths, weaknesses, habits, foibles and follies….And not surprisingly, they might think a little differently about your favorite player than you do, and each one of the team brass views that player based on what he sees…...So what does a poor GM do?

1. Evaluate current talent, decide if they’re improving or going backwards.
2. Decide on what needs your team is desperate to add. Kevin O’Connor has stated that the Jazz need interior defense, and more shooters.
3. Ignore those needs. This is really hard to do sometimes, for there is this seven footer available who might have a foot problem, but darn if he keeps healthy…Who knows?
4. Draft the best player. Pinch yourself, Mr. GM. Avoid that temptation to draft for need, unless the best player available is equal in talent to that center who just might turn out….

One of the hardest things for the average NBA fan to do is understand why their team keeps drafting other positions when they need a center in the worst way.

Let me explain it very plainly. It’s better to have a small forward or shooting guard on your team who can play in the NBA, and has trade value…..Than own the rights to a center who can’t make a D-League roster, much less play on your team and in the NBA. And yes, the bigger the better….If he’s a power forward and you have an All-Star power forward eating up sheckles on your team…..Draft him anyway. Some team will want him, and injuries always seem to happen at the worst time, don’t they?

You just never know. There might be a team pining for the small forward on your team, and is willing to give you exactly what you need, if you have that player available to trade or fill in when needed.

Some players are as close to sure things as there can be in the NBA. Others could be a very valuable cog in the works, or just as easy be a bust even a lonely man stranded on a desert island for 20 years wouldn’t look twice at.

The one thing I like to hear about when I read about a player, or listen to when he talks, is that he loves basketball, and loves to practice and improve. I’m very high on Joe Alexander and OJ Mayo in this draft, because they are the first to stroll on the court, and the last to leave. That means a lot. In a league where almost everyone is incredibly talented, very tall and long, and meets the eye test to a T…..I like to hear that someone loves basketball and is willing to work, and shows a great work ethic. There are quite a few Hall of Fame players who didn’t possess the talent of the spend fools who wash out each year in the NBA, players with more than enough talent to make it big, but not enough heart or desire to cross the street to pick a basketball up, much less push themselves away from the dinner table or even know where a weight room is available.

The Jazz aren’t going to draft Joe Alexander or OJ Mayo this year, unless they decide they can’t live without them, and pull the strings to make it so.

Not likely.

You have to give something up to get something, unless you’re Kevin O’Connor and the leprechaun is going to give you another wish…..Or find an incredibly stupid owner who’s decided to liquidate his franchise to make it easier to sell. That’s sort of like improving the car you want to sell with a sledgehammer. It takes a special person to buy that car.

So, I’ve told you more than a little about what the draft is, and what it should be; but I’ve not told you who the Jazz will draft this year. I’ve got some ideas, even a couple of dark horses who might show up in the winner’s ring. If the Jazz stay where they are in the draft, and have a modicum of luck, one of these players will be wearing a Jazz hat on Thursday night.

First Round:

Chase Budinger, Ryan Anderson, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, DeVon Hardin, Jason Thompson, Kostas Koufos, Serge Ibaka, Nathan Jawai.

A couple of those guys are sleepers, but players the Jazz could be interested in.

Second Round:

Rodrigue Beaubois, Omer Asik, Les Hudson, Pat Calathes, Semih Erden, Sonny Weems, Rudy Mbemba, Shann Foster, Sasha Kaun, James Gist, Kyle Weaver.

Picking the second round is a ridiculously stupid thing to attempt. Teams fall in love with players, and draft not by the best talent, but by gut and instinct.

But, if you had to pin me down right now:

Sonny Weems, Semih Erden, and Rodrigue Beaubois. If Omer is there, draft the poet-tent maker. I think he’ll go right at the top of the second round.

My favorite right now in the first round?

The more I hear about him, I’m growing to like Roy Hibbert. I think he’ll be a better athlete than advertised. He is a duplication of Fess, so if the Jazz draft Serge Ibaka, or Ryan Anderson, I’m not surprised. They are my dark horses for the Jazz, and couldn’t be more different, though they play the same position. Ibaka might have the most basketball talent, but he’s 18 and not really ready for big minutes. He’s 6’10”, very long and an incredible physical specimen. Ryan Anderson is the same size, but a so-so athlete. He’s also one of the very best scoring big men in the draft, with a deadly jump shot, 3 point range and is a very good rebounder who isn’t afraid to scrap in the middle.