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The Domino Effect |
By Ron Richards
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No, it’s not a new Robert Ludlum book.
It’s what happens sometimes in the NBA
draft, when teams pick a certain player, and
by doing so create a cascade of Dominos
falling almost randomly out of logical and
what seemed to be preordained and
predestined order.
For example, in this year’s draft……
Everyone and their favorite mutt thinks that
the top two picks in this year’s draft are a
lock, including me. But suppose something
happens. Suppose that Pat Riley’s posturing
with the second pick, spreading rumors that
he’s not thrilled with Beasley’s work ethic,
that Pat would really rather draft John Riek
than Michael Beasley, is really true.
Suppose he bypasses Beasley, and picks OJ
Mayo. Suppose Minnesota has a trade already
in the works to move the third pick, because
they want a certain player, say Kevin Love,
who Kevin McHale is supposedly infatuated
with in a basketball sense. Minnesota is
picking for Memphis, who really wanted OJ
Mayo in the worst way. Now Memphis has a
quandary. OJ is gone, but Michael Beasley is
still available. Memphis really wants a
guard who can play some point, they think
Hakim Warrick is the PF of the future for
them, so they swallow real hard and tell
Minnesota to pick Jerryd Bayless, the next
best thing to OJ Mayo.
Now Seattle is struck with the fact that
Michael Beasley, probably the best player in
the draft, is available at the forth pick.
Do they draft for talent, and pick the best
player available? Rumors are beginning to
fly like a flock of crows with an owl in
their midst. Why did Miami pass up Beasley?
Is there something wrong with him? Seattle
hasn’t even had him in for a workout, so
they take what seems to be the safe choice,
and draft Eric Gordon at the fourth pick.
Minnesota’s got their mind made up, Kevin
Love is the man. They pick Love with the
fifth pick. Beasley’s still on the board,
and New York is picking next. New York
wanted OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, or Jerryd
Bayless. None of them are there, but Michael
Beasley is. Donnie Walsh gulps, grins and
grabs Beasley without a second thought.
The Clippers are picking next, and they
wanted Eric Gordon. He’s gone. They draft
Danilo Gallinari, who had a promise at the
tenth pick from the Nets. Milwaukee sees
that Anthony Randolph is still there, and
picks him over Joe Alexander, having
Randolph slightly ahead of Alexander on
their big board. Charlotte wasn’t thrilled
with Alexander, so they pick Russell
Westbrook, because new coach Larry Brown
isn’t too sure about Raymond Felton.
The Mock Drafts are now officially in
shambles, GM’s are shaking their heads,
reassessing their boards, trying to figure
out what’s going on. The only team to pick
as expected was Chicago, and all the
scenarios are being ripped up in little
pieces.
The best thing to do when scenarios like
this happen is stay true to your course, and
if a need can’t be filled, draft strictly
for talent, and talent alone. So the next
ten teams or so do just that, and suddenly
at 23 the Jazz have a plethora of choices
for big men.
Koufos, Lopez, Thompson, Ibaka and Hibbert
are all still there, as well as Batum from
France. Centers are notoriously iffy, and
the teams before the Jazz have taken the
safe course, and drafted what they consider
the best talent, the surest course in what
has turned out to be a whacky draft.
The Jazz grin, choose the big man they like,
and everyone lives happily ever after in
Jazzland.
It almost surely won’t happen like that, but
it could.
There could also be a run on big men, and
all of the projected first round centers
could go before the Jazz draft at 23. Then
the Jazz simply pick the best talent
available, and he could really be a dandy,
perhaps even an All-Star in the making.
It almost surely won’t happen like that,
either.
The NBA Draft is by its own nature
unpredictable, almost unfathomable. Mock
drafts do well to get 6-7 picks dead on in
the first round, though they’re usually
pretty close, one or two picks away.
Sometimes a team picks a player in a
different zip code, like Shelden Williams at
the fifth pick by the Atlanta Hawks a couple
of years ago. That could happen this year,
it could happen at any time.
If you’re following the draft this year, pay
close attention to Charlotte at 9, Portland
at 13, Golden State at 14, Phoenix at 15,
Toronto at 17 and Denver at 20. Those six
picks might decide how good our pick might
be, for they could go in a number of
directions, and the Mocks are all over the
board with them.
Unlike most years, this year the 23rd pick
could be a very good player, perhaps even
better than that.
It’s a deep draft, what I think will be
known as one of the best and deepest drafts
in NBA history.
Let’s hope fate is kind, and other GM’s have
a shared brain cramp next Thursday.
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