Jazzhoops   Season Preview by Stef Siepel queen_jazzfan@hotmail.com My fingers were itching to write this season’s preview, like every year. No more stats, no more facts, no more quotes and no more research. Just my opinion and nothing else. For this I don’t need to read through hundreds of articles in my quest to find one little quote that I can use, which I often don’t even find. Apparently I’m not the only one whose fingers were itching since a lot of previews came out before the pre-season even started. I kept my patience because I think that writing a preview before the start of the pre-season is crazy. How can you make a judgement of a team that doesn’t even have the majority of its roster set? A lot of previews concerning the Jazz said that the Jazz have a point guard problem. Of course they have a little bit of a point guard problem when the main back-up hadn't been signed, which Jackson still had to do when a lot of the previews came out. And yes, I'm intentionally making fun of the big sports sites, but I think it is justified. Even now I don’t know everything about the rotation and the players, but at least I know the roster and in what shape the players are in. That is better than writing this before the pre-season. And now that we know the roster, I will try to look at all the players and how I think they are going to play this season. John Stockton- PG John Stockton doesn’t need an introduction to Jazz fans. That would be like introducing the Rolling Stones at a Rolling Stones convention, or at a Beatles convention, although you might get a different reaction. John Stockton has been one of the cornerstones for the Jazz for years, and this year will be no exception. He may be a year older in others' eyes, but in his eyes, he's just a day older than yesterday … and a day isn’t much. If someone thinks his ability to pass or see the court will suddenly disappear, then he hasn’t watched John Stockton over the years. Maybe his body aches a bit more, and maybe his first step is a bit slower, and maybe his hair is a bit grayer, but he will still lead the offense, and he will still fight on the defensive end. This old fox will again amaze the fans with 13 points, 8 assists and 2 steals per game. And that, in the famous 30 minutes per game he has been playing in the past years. Nothing to worry about. Mark Jackson- PG The Jazz may have started the youth movement, but that doesn’t mean they don’t sign veterans at all. Jackson may not be the youngest point guard in the game but that doesn’t matter. Jackson, a pass-first, shoot-second, type of point guard, has led many offenses throughout his career, and he will try to do the same in Utah. Here he will play in a system that he likes. No selfish players and no players who don’t know the plays, which is a good thing because Jackson can still run a play and can still make the pass that leads to a basket. Jackson is a top point guard and would have started on many teams, but he opted to play for Utah. For the past years the Jazz played a lot worse with Stockton on the bench, but with this quality point guard coming in, the Jazz offense won’t suffer as much. Jackson may prove to be the key part on this Jazz team. Expect a season of 8 points per game and 7 assists per game from this veteran while playing around the 25 minutes per game. Carlos Arroyo- PG If you would have said during last year's play-offs that the Jazz signed Carlos Arroyo everyone would have laughed and thought, “Who is that?” But Arroyo impressed during the world championships and continues to impress this pre-season with his passing and defensive skills. Arroyo might not get a lot of minutes because of the two players in front of him, who are still better than this young guy even at their ages, but when he is on the court he will probably pleasantly surprise people. I expect him to learn from the old guys, Jackson and Stockton, and to have a very good season-good enough that the Jazz will sign him again next year. Raul Lopez- PG He probably won’t play this year. If he does, his time will be limited and therefore, I won’t say much in this season preview about him. The only thing Lopez is probably going to do this year is learn from the two oldies who run the point in Salt Lake City. And that isn’t too bad for a first year. DeShawn Stevenson- SG Stevenson is a big question mark this year. A lot of Jazz fans expect a breakout season from the young shooting guard, but I’m not so sure about that. Stevenson showed his potential in the summer league, but he hasn’t done anything to impress in this pre-season. He is in contention for the starting shooting guard spot, but to actually get it he must hit that mid-range jumper consistently. Those dunks are pretty nice, but you will get more mid-range jumpshot opportunities than dunk opportunities. He will get his minutes, and he will get the time to prove himself, but he better make the best of it. His minutes will probably go up to 20 per game and in those minutes he will probably find a way to get 7 points, but he must shoot a better percentage than last year otherwise Sloan might cut his minutes to even fewer than last year. If he improves his mid-range game then he might even get the starter spot and the starter minutes that go with it. But I wouldn’t bet all my money on it. Not even a dime, to be more exact. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m afraid I’m right. Calbert Cheaney- SG/SF He, too, is a contender for the starting shooting guard spot, and although he may not be a top quality player, he does have a mean jump shot. Not from long range, but from mid-range, which is what Sloan is looking for. Add to that his attitude and you have a real contender for that starting two spot. His field goal percentage has always been pretty high, especially for a guard, but he hasn’t shown that in the pre-season. One reason could be that he needs to learn the system, but time is running out. His best quality in previous years, the mid-range jumpshot, now seems a bit shaky, and Jazz fans aren’t impressed yet. If he shoots as well as in previous years, then he is a lock for at least 20 minutes per game. In the Jazz system, which is very friendly to this kind of player, Cheaney will probably jump-shoot his way to 8 points per game. If he shoots in the season as he shoots now, then I have little faith that he will play more than 15 minutes per game and that means 5 points per game, which would be a shame. I give him until December to improve, and he should start to play better during the early part of the season. Matt Harpring- SF/SG He might play out of position at shooting guard according to many experts (one even said he would play waaaaaaaaaaaay out of position, and I’m not exaggerating) but he seems to be the best candidate for the shooting guard spot. He is the only shooting guard who can hit the three-pointer, he has a solid mid-range jumper, and he isn’t afraid to go inside. He also has the right attitude, so Jazz fans and the Jazz staff already love him. He might have trouble defending the quicker shooting guards, but Kirilenko can guard the shooting guards while he defends the small forwards. If he indeed becomes the starting shooting guard and plays 35 minutes per game then 16 points per game and 8 rebounds per game could be possible. He will score more than last year because of the system and increased minutes. A bit more realistic is 13 points and 7 rebounds per game in 30 minutes, but that still is a lot. Andrei Kirilenko- SF The pleasant surprise of last year wants to surprise this year as well. Kirilenko is working on his shot with Jeff Hornacek and, according to Kirilenko, it is really helping. That would be great, as that was his weak point last season. His defense is suffocating and he will irritate a lot of opponents by blocking their shots. Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal head a list of players Kirilenko blocked last season, and this year he looks to add even more. He will probably start at the small forward position and he will play more minutes because even when his offensive game isn’t going (and that will happen less this year than last year) he is still very valuable at the other end of the court. If this Russian sophomore has improved as much as I think he has then he will be better offensively, which would mean something like 12 points per game. He already impressed on the defensive end last year and with a bit of luck we could see 5 rebounds, 2/2.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game, and that is an impressive line. Scott Padgett- Forward If you ignore that horrible mistake in the play-offs, he had a good year last year. He was one of the two three-point threats, along with John Crotty, and it seems that he again will be one of the few players on the Jazz roster with a long-range shot. His field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage were great, but his problem is that he is too slow to defend small forwards and too small to defend power forwards. But on the offensive end he is a welcome addition. His minutes will probably decrease a bit, but if they don’t, I think his stats might increase. The biggest question is whether or not he will be the main back-up to Karl Malone or whether Collins, Harpring, and Amaechi will steal all his minutes. This will probably be another unremarkable year for Scott Padgett. Karl Malone- PF Yes, he is a year older, but that has never stopped him before. Although back problems appear more frequently, he still is the offensive weapon of the Jazz and he once again will try to lead the Utah Jazz to the play-offs with the help of partner in crime John Stockton. His preparation in the off-season once again was impressive, and although his pre-season hasn’t gone all that well, fans shouldn’t be worried. His engine will start running when the season starts, and when it starts running this engine might have enough power to pull out an impressive season of 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per game in 35 minutes. And yes, I’m indeed predicting he will play three minutes less than last year, but if he doesn’t, he will probably have the same stats, although he might miss one more game. John Amaechi- PF/C They say he is in better shape than last year and that would be a welcome surprise for the Jazz, who are in need of a low post scorer, which Amaechi was, in his best year in Orlando. But I honestly don’t think he will get many more minutes than last year, although his stats might rise a bit. 5 points in 12 minutes per game, is that too much to ask? Or, maybe a better question, is that too many minutes? Lets just hope he will be in better shape than last year; that’s all we can ask for at the moment. Jarron Collins- PF/C Collins was a pleasant surprise last year. The second round pick fought his way onto the roster, into the rotation, and finally into the starting five. And he had an impressive pre-season. Collins is one year older and thus one year wiser. He has worked on his shot and he has improved overall. I’m secretly hoping for 10 points and 6 rebounds per game, and that's possible if he plays something like 27 minutes. A double-digit scorer at the center spot, can you imagine that? A bit more pessimistic, and maybe a bit more realistic, is 8 points and 5 rebounds per game in 25 minutes. But still, that's something to look forward to. Greg Ostertag- C Every year we all hope Ostertag finally lives up to our expectations, which have been lowered every year, but he never does. But now, after a good play-off series last year against the Kings, it might even come true. I’m not saying he is going to score 10 points per game; I’m thinking more of 6 rebounds per game and 2.5 blocks per game in 20 minutes with 4 or 5 points as a bonus. And he is capable of doing that since he already did it in the 99/00 season, which wasn't that long ago. I’m just hoping he will be a defensive presence again, and that should be do-able. Curtis Borchardt- C He is injured and I don’t know how long he will be out. Some reports say that he will be back in either December or January but the Jazz organization doesn’t want to make a timetable for his return. And that is very understandable, as they don’t want to rush him. Just make sure his injury will heal and just let him learn the system this year. If he can contribute, great. If not, then just make sure he can contribute next year and the years after that, because that’s why the Jazz drafted him. Before some smart guy starts adding all those points per game up and jumps to the conclusion that the Jazz are going to average more than 100 points per game, I want to remind you of this: Not all the players will play every game. You have to keep in mind things like suspensions and injuries, as well as guys who won’t play because Sloan doesn’t put them on the court. If you add up the total points per game of last year you won’t get the 96 points per game the Jazz averaged. I also frequently said that if a player plays a certain amount of minutes he will average this, but if he plays a lower amount of minutes he will average that. So if you add things up, it won’t make sense. Just a reminder. Now that I have analyzed every player it is time to analyze the weak and strong points of the Jazz as a team. One of the weak points will be the three-point shooting. Last year it already was a weakness and now, with the departure of John Crotty, the Jazz only have Padgett as a consistent three-point threat. Of course, Stockton and Jackson will hit some in close games, something Stockton is known for, and Harpring will add a pair on occasion, but that’s it. Maybe Kirilenko can join that list, especially if his training with Hornacek works out, but still, the Jazz don’t have a real consistent three-point shooter. Another weakness last year was the massive amount of turnovers. I think the Jazz will improve in that area, but that it will still be a problem. I think the Jazz turnover average will still be higher than the NBA average. Inside scoring will also be a weakness. When I talk about inside scoring then I’m talking about real low post scoring; not lay-ups and dunks, but a scorer inside like McHale. I know that we can’t expect a Kevin McHale, but the Jazz don’t have one inside scorer. Karl Malone chooses the jump shot more and more and none of our centers are low post scorers. And the back-up power forward, Scott Padgett, is known for his outside game, not his inside game. The Jazz will also have strong points. With the addition of the new players who all have the same over-my-dead-body kind of attitude, the Jazz will be a good rebounding team. In the pre-season they have out-rebounded most of their opponents, and they missed Greg Ostertag in some of them. Their rebounding will be okay. Another strong point will be the passing. For years the Jazz have had the best passing guard, John Stockton, and the best passing big man, Karl Malone (although some would say Sabonis but he didn’t play last year). Add Mark Jackson and Carlos Arroyo at the point and you have three good passing point guards and two of them can even pass extremely well. Stevenson also knows how to make the pass, as does the whole Jazz squad. So I think that the Jazz will dish out more than 21assists per game, which would be 2 more than last season. Field goal percentage will not really be a strong point for the Jazz, but it definitely should be an improved point. With the addition of consistent mid-range shooters like Harpring, Cheaney, and Jackson, the field goal percentage will go up despite the departure of Donyell Marshall, who had the best fg% of the entire Jazz squad last season. A 46% field goal percentage should be possible, which would be1% better than last year, which is pretty significant although it might not seem that way. Unless, of course, they were to shoot 1% worse than last year, then everybody would jump on it right away. But I think this is really an improved point. To go back to the strong points, the offense will probably look very good with Jackson and Stockton leading it. The half-court offense and the special plays are something I really look forward to seeing because that is going to be very sweet to watch. This will also help to improve the field goal percentage, which is a bonus. After analyzing the team and the players, it is time to see what they can do in the West. The West is without a doubt the strongest conference and almost all the teams improved this off-season. The Jazz barely made it to the play-offs last year but that was partly because of injuries. John Crotty, a candidate for player of the week in January, was injured for the last part of the season, and two of the veterans, Donyell Marshall and Bryon Russell, also had injury problems. Injuries are very normal to a team but the problem was the depth in the Jazz squad. Starks, Lewis, and LaRue tried but weren’t capable of helping the team. Now the team has more depth and more players who can play multiple positions. The Jazz certainly improved this off-season, but will that lead them to the play-offs? The Lakers, Kings and Mavericks seem untouchable for the Jazz, while the Spurs still have the Duncan/Robinson duo intact. The Trailblazers seem to win the battle against the Jazz talent-wise, although it remains to be seen if they can actually hold it together. The Timberwolves seem to be slip-sliding away and the Sonics, with all their problems with Payton, don’t look that well either. The Clippers and Rockets, on the other hand, are knocking on heaven's door so the Jazz will have to fight. The Jazz could miss the playoffs but they could also get the fourth spot. They might even have an outside shot at the division title. The West is wide open but I think it will be something like this: Kings Lakers Mavericks Spurs Trailblazers Jazz Timberwolves Rockets I predict a 49-33 record for the Jazz, which should be enough to get to the play-offs and to compete for home-court advantage. But it just as easily could be 44-38 again, although I would put my money on the 49-33 record. And to end this season preview I want to remind everyone that this could be the last year we see Stockton and Malone. Add the emergence of the young guys, Kirilenko, Collins and hopefully Stevenson, and the new guys and the attitude they bring then it should be a great year to watch. Just sit back and enjoy the ride, and hopefully we will get to the second round of the play-offs again. As a Jazz fan, of course, I’m still hoping that they will surprise everyone and go to the Western Conference Finals once more to compete with the elite at the highest stage for the highest prizes. Let the season begin!