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The NBA Uncertainty Principle

March 24, 2010
By Ron Richards

I'm not sure if you've heard of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and it's been a while since I was a physics student at the University of Utah. The basic idea is easy to explain, if not to really understand.

Scientists believe that atoms resemble a solar system, in that there is a nucleus(like a star), around which "revolve" electrons and other little particles, which "fly" around in the basic building block of matter in an amazing fashion. Now this a story about the NBA, not physics, so for this discussion it's enough to understand that science believes it's impossible to pin one of those little particles down and study it, like an insect pinned on a board. If you determine one factor of it's existence, like direction and velocity, it's exact location becomes impossible to predict. If I remember correctly, it's because small particles behave like a wave as much as they do a physical speck of matter. Quantum physics gives us a clearer understanding of why this is so, but I like a stiff drink before even contemplating the Realm of Quantum.

Now give me some literary license here, and pretend what I've just explained makes sense. It's enough to understand that there are some things you just can't pin down and fit in a slot all neat and tidy. Just ask the weatherman, or a golfer depending on the weatherman like me. Sometimes life just ain't fair.

Now take those uncertainties about atoms and the weather and start thinking about the NBA Draft. Perhaps you should take something for the headache that's almost sure to follow, before it starts banging in your head.

Here we're not dealing with things we can measure and predict even with the slightest hint of certainty. I'm talking about the most elusive of all of nature's creations, the heart, mind and spirit of a human being, in this case an ballplayer.

You can quantify certain things about an athlete. How fast, how high, how far....The NBA does this every year in the Combine. What's striking to me is how little correlation there is between the measurements and success in the NBA. There are things to learn from the combine, but being an outstanding athlete does not guarantee being an NBA superstar. It helps for sure, but there are other factors at play.

Skills, experience, heart, mind, character,will and determination...They all play a part of the package that NBA teams put their hopes into on Draft Day.

NBA teams ponder a lot of other factors on draft day. Team needs, combine results and actual statistics from college or Euro play, workouts, interviews and personality testing...It all goes into a hat waiting for the general manager to pull out the magic slip.

This is a Jazz fan site, and by now most of you already know the Jazz will most likely have a top ten draft pick in the coming draft. I've been watching the NY Knicks with great interest and extreme frustration this year, wincing with every win and cheering with every loss. I thought for a while that the Knicks would finish with a bottom five record or less, but the NBA Tanking Factor(that's another story), has come into play with the other teams vying for the honor of being the worst team. So most likely the Knicks will finish with about the 8th worst record in the NBA. Then comes the lottery, and since the team with the worst record seems to seldom get the #1 pick, we'll find out then where the Jazz will really pick.

But even if the Jazz wind up with that top ten pick, and not the first pick, all is not lost. A lot of things can happen, and do happen. Teams drafting in front of the Jazz will make mistakes and select players that make the Jazz extremely happy. There are many, many busts in the top five players drafted.

I haven't settled on a player I really like for the Jazz, because until we know where they draft for sure, it's fruitless to speculate.

But I am sure about one thing. There will be a player available that will impact the Jazz where they pick, and impact the franchise for a lot of years to come. If the Jazz make the right choice, it's fat city. If they make a mistake, squandering this once in a great while chance, it could be devastating.

I do have some players I like, and they're probably quite familiar names. We've been talking about them for quite a while. John Wall, of course. He's a sure fire superstar if there is such a thing. Derek Favors, who is currently my preferred choice. Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson, who could be to the wing position what Deron Williams is to the point for the Jazz. I think they're excellent choices. I'm worried about Cousins from Kentucky, he's got bust written all over his face. Hope I'm wrong for his sake. Greg Monroe I'm not sure about. I like him, but I worry about his potential for a pick this high. Donatus Motiejunas is intriguing, but Euro's have been slipping in favor the last few years, and you want to be absolutely sure about a pick like this. I'd want to see him in person in a workout. He's very, very talented. Cole Aldrich is a safe pick, but I firmly believe the Jazz have two young centers to build upon. I think we'll still see Kosta Koufos blossom in the next year or two. Hope I'm right on that one. Fess is coming around as well, so with these two, I'd rather take a chance on a wing or power forward type.


So don't despair, Jazz fans. If the pick turns out to be at ten or slightly less, the Jazz still have a chance to get a very nice player, a foundation player for years to come. Let's wait until the lottery, then see where we're at.

The draft is only three months away, but there are a lot of things that will change the face of the draft dramatically by then. Workouts, who enters and who withdraws from the draft, even injuries at this stage of the season.

I've seen a lot of drafts, and this is a good one to have a top ten pick tucked in your shirt pocket. There will be a player that will help the Jazz when we draft, regardless of position. A top five pick would make it easier, but there are no guarantees in the NBA Draft, except for one. Even with the safest imaginable pick, there are always uncertainties about that ballplayer and the years to come. That's what the NBA Uncertainty Principle is, and that's what makes the NBA draft so interesting and frustrating at the same time.

In the months to come, I'll break down the draft a little bit more and talk about those players mentioned and a few more who could help the Jazz right now. I think there are at least ten of them in this draft, and some of those likely won't be drafted in the top ten.

Next week we'll discuss quantum physics in depth, and how it relates to string theory, dark matter and the concept of time as a linear measurement in the fourth dimension. I know you're holding your breath in anticipation. Relax, read a book or take in a Jazz game while you're waiting. Don't worry about where that particle is, worry about where you are and how your direction and speed influence your environment.

Make it a positive experience.