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| Future
History, Love Potion #9 |
April 25, 2010
By Ron
Richards
If you want to predict
the future, look to the past.
You've heard it a thousand times. Nothing is
really new under the sun, history repeats
itself.
It's trite, a platitude, condescending and a
insult to creative thinking.
Or is it?
When the history you're talking about
concerns man and his foibles, it's stupid
and dangerous to ignore the past. And while
history tells us about man, his religions,
politics, passions and faults, it also is
ultimately instructive about something so
unimportant on the cosmic scheme of things
as the NBA Draft. You were wondering where
this all lead? Oh, ye of little faith. While
I find it fun and illustrative to tie
fishing and golf to the NBA, the common
thread in all things historical is the one
common derivative in all things historical.
Man.
Men are the same today, yesterday and
tomorrow. When I say men, I mean.....Men.
Anyone who thinks they have women figured
out is a better man than I. But that's a
horse of another color, and a colorful horse
indeed.
Men are just men, even when they're boys.
Most women contend that most men are boys,
for men never really grow up. I take it
that's a good thing, just as dogs are really
immature wolves. Woof, woof.
So if you want to understand what's going to
happen in the 2010 NBA Draft, just look to
the drafts of past years and the answers to
all your questions are there for the asking.
More to the point, and yes it was a long and
tortuous climb getting here, it tells us all
you need to know about the ninth pick of the
NBA Draft, if indeed lady luck has trouble
with ping pong balls. If the Jazz wind up in
the top three spots, then the Utah Jazz have
a much simple task ahead of them. If the
Jazz stay at ninth, it becomes more
interesting.
Not hopeless, interesting.
Just look to the Draft of 2008, and the
parallels are so similar it's spooky.
There's a blur of a point guard who's ahead
of the pack, only this time it's Jon Wall
instead of Derrick Rose. That draft only had
a couple of decent point guard prospects,
just like this one. That draft had a bunch
of big men with lots of potential, just like
this one.
Anyone who thinks the Jazz can't get a
franchise changer at #9 better look at that
draft before they write off the number nine
pick for the Utah Jazz. One of the things
about the draft that always helps teams
picking down the line is that franchises
fall in love with players, and not always
for the best interests of that team.
Charlotte wanted a point guard at #8 in the
worst way, and reached for DJ Augustine.
Mistake. Milwaukee fell in love with Joe
Alexander, just like I did, and picked him
#9. That hasn't turned out very well. Still
got some hopes for Joe, but I might be the
only one. I didn't see that one coming. They
say it's the one you don't see that gets
you. I believe it.
But look at the #10 pick in that draft, and
then look at the kids available at #9 in
this draft, and tell me why one of them
can't be just as good. Odds are that at
least one of them will be that good.
Most of you know that #10 pick was Brook
Lopez. I picked Brook in all my fantasy
drafts, and he didn't disappoint me at all.
He's one of the best young centers in
basketball, and might eventually be the best
center in basketball during his tenure. He's
got everything. Rebounds, block shots, the
sweetest turn around jumper you ever saw for
a seven footer, plays defense. There's not
much to dislike. Plus, he's a good kid,
great intangibles.
I think one of the guys the Jazz are looking
at can be just as good. Maybe not in exactly
the same fashion, but just as good.
Greg Monroe, for example.
Not overly explosive for a 6'11" PF-C type,
but very, very skilled. Handles the ball
like a guard, is a better passer than most
NBA point guards, and I'm not exaggerating
at all. He might be the best passer coming
into the NBA, period. The guys a magician
with the rock. He's agile, smooth and
deceptive. In the right system, and the Jazz
would be one of them, he's a winner. I think
he would be a perfect fit for the Jazz. I
think he's got 20-10 potential, but will
probably average more like 16-9 over his
career. That's not bad.
Cole Aldrich.
The best center in college basketball, Cole
has gone from lukewarm to blistering, in my
estimation. I'm watching what a big man with
decent defensive skills can do for a team
like the Utah Jazz, and then I project what
a big man with great defensive skills like
Cole Aldrich could do, and my knees get a
little weak. This could be good. This could
be really, really good. I think Cole is a
much better athlete than supposed, much like
Tyler Hansbrough from North Carolina. Tyler
had a rough year with a couple of freak
injuries, but was a very interesting player
for Indiana when healthy. I think Aldrich
has a much higher ceiling, with a lot more
potential than the common comparison to Pryz
of Portland.
I think he's going to be a double double
center with a solid 2-3 blocks a game, and
perhaps lead the NBA in blocks during some
of his years in the league. He's not known
for his offense, just rebounding, defense
and blocking shots, but there are hints of a
very nice offensive game lurking in his
funky jumper. He's got a very nice touch and
the jumper, while having too many moving
parts right now, is fixable. The kid has a
mean streak and doesn't back down from
anyone, just like Tyler Hansbrough. That's
not a common thing in these days of instant
millionaires with suspect motivations.
I think Cole could very well average 15-11
with 2-3 blocks a game, and be on the NBA
All Defensive Team for a lot of years.
Jan Vesely.
I hear the groans. Another Euro. Damn,
another Pau Gasol or Dirk Nowitzki. Who
wants one of those guys?
Jan is a very, very interesting player from
the land that gives us Prague, Bartok and
Denise Milani. Goodness.
Another Euro with good ball skills that
can't jump or dunk the ball. Eh, not quite.
Jan is a freakish, long athlete at 6'11",
240 and barely 19 years old with explosive
jumping ability and the speed to cover
guards on the court. He's got a nice frame
that's filling in quite nicely, perhaps not
as nice as Denise, however. He captured the
interest of about a thousand NBA scouts with
a breakout game against the Phoenix Suns
last summer, showing NBA athleticism and a
very nice jump shot. But like all Euros,
he's more of gamble than the local college
kids. Is he going to be Anderson Varejo or
Dirk?
Probably neither, just Jan. Vesely is an
exceptional athlete who could be a decent
role player, or an NBA All-Star. His
potential is great, but so is the risk. He
could be a 20-10 guy, or 10-5. It's too soon
to tell, and here's where the scouts really
earn their money.
Epke Udoh.
A 6'10" PF-C from Baylor, Epke transferred
from Detroit Land to Texas, and the change
of scenery did him good. He's another very
interesting player, an exceptional shot
blocker with surprising ball handling skills
who's been compared to Jason Thompson.
Strong, quick, he can play with his back to
the basket or take his man off the dribble.
This kid is a real sleeper, and the only
thing holding him back from being a very,
very good NBA player is how bad he wants it.
So many times you see kids coming into the
NBA who get the big money, and that's the
beginning and end of their development. If
he's willing to work and improve, he could
be much better than Jason Thompson. Probably
has a ceiling of about 15-8 with 2 blocks a
game.
Al-Faroq Aminu. 6'9" 230 SF-PF.
Most mocks have Aminu going about five to
eight, but I wouldn't be surprised to see
him slip a little. Aminu has perhaps the
most potential of all the prospects I've
listed, he's a freakish, long athlete with
the size to play PF and the speed to cover
guards. He reminds me a little of Rudy Gay,
not quite the offensive player, has the same
uber athleticism but loves to play defense.
Rudy Gay is one of those guys who get great
numbers but don't help you win games. Aminu
doesn't care about numbers but has a great
desire to win and play defense. He's been
compared to Josh Smith, but I get the
impression he's not a head case, he's a
great kid with a good work ethic. His
potential is what he wants it to be, there
are no limits except those he puts on
himself. I think his college team hurt his
draft stock with the style of offense and
lack of guards to get the ball to this very,
very talented kid.
One of these kids will likely be a Utah Jazz
player, and could have the same impact or
even more than Brook Lopez. I hear the moans
about not picking higher in the draft, but
I'm not worried. There are players at #9 who
will help the Jazz, and help them a whole
bunch. It could be one of these guys, or it
might be someone like the Johnson kid from
Syracuse dropping because someone makes
draft mistakes.
Keep the faith, ignore the naysayers. It's
entirely possible and highly likely the Jazz
will get a very good to perhaps great player
in this draft. All it takes is just a little
luck.
Of course, if the ping pong balls drop, and
the Jazz get #3 or above......And I do have
a feeling....
That would be nice. |
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