Straight Flush: How I Learned To Love the Draft and Keep My Sanity by Ron Richards Any poker players out there? I thought so, then you know the odds of drawing to an inside straight flush, don’t you? 52-1, almost exactly the same odds the Jazz have of picking one, two or three this year. Not good. Seriously not good. Know the odds of picking an NBA all-star at the fourteenth pick in any given year? Neither do I, but I guarantee it makes our chances of getting the number one pick look like a sure fire bet. "With the fourteenth pick in the NBA draft, the Jazz pick Jordan Farmer, UCLA." I know what you’re thinking, and the rest of the 6000 fans at the Delta Center would be thinking exactly the same thing. "What? Who? You gotta be kidding me." You know what? You’re right. You’re also wrong. As the boos filter down through the Delta Center, KOC approaches the podium. The boos escalate. He smiles at the crowd, gestures for silence. "There’s been a trade. I can’t tell you more but we just picked Jordan Farmer for another team. Wait about a half an hour, and I’ll be back." The draft goes on, the Kings pick Quicy Douby, the Knicks pick Kyle Lowry, the Nets pick Saer Sene, then follow with Rudy Fernandez. Both of those players, a seven foot center with fantastic athleticism and shot blocking skills, and a 6'6" shooting guard with point guard skills who is mentioned as the best young talent in Europe, a great dunker......Sigh. They both would look great in a Jazz uniform. That’s what we need, becoming more athletic, deeper on the bench. Never happens for the Jazz. Out comes KOC. "The Jazz have traded the fourteenth pick in the draft for the twenty-first and twenty-second picks owned by the New Jersey Nets. New Jersey also receives a future 2nd round pick." Now that’s just a scenario. It also just happens to make a lot of sense as long as the Nets covet someone who will be long gone by their picks. Here’s why. The fourteenth pick in the lottery is a lot like kissing your sister, even if your last name is Berry and your sister’s name is Halle. In some drafts there is enough talent to get immediate help from that pick. In this draft, if you’re lucky you might get a role player with a chance to become a solid NBA player. This year’s draft has perhaps six or seven players who will come in and contribute to their teams right away. Remember, these are bad teams drafting for specific needs. Tyrus Thomas is almost certainly going to play for Portland right away. So is Lamarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Brandon Roy or whomever the Blazers draft. There’s a reason they have the worst record in the league. The problem is that at the fourteenth pick, the Jazz better hold that rabbit’s foot tight and make sure the four leaf clovers are in place. That pick is more likely to be a bust that never pans out. Think.....oh..... Quincy Lewis. Ouch. We need one or two solid contributors to an up and coming team. That’s us. Adding to the problem is that we’re solid at the power forward, small forward and point guard positions. We do have needs, immediate needs that should be addressed, whether through free agency or through the draft. ‘Aint going to happen with this year’s crop of rookies. Not at fourteen, and not this year. So if you’re smart, and don’t believe that miracles like John Stockton or Karl Malone happen all the time(it would be nice), you start opening other doors. Doors that will reward the team with depth and needed parts just about the time the Jazz are fighting for a championship in two or three years. "But we need help now!" Ok, fine. Gordan will be back next year, CJ is a year older, and there are free agents galore who would work as a temporary fix, maybe not great choices, but adequate. What we don’t want to do is draft someone at our pick who’s a reach, even the players I like......... Maurice Ager, Rudy Fernandez, Saer Sene.........To do so wastes the value of the pick. If you can trade down, pick some value up and get the guy you want in first place, why wouldn’t you do that? You’d be crazy not to. Before we get too far, let me throw out a couple of disclaimers. One, if someone like Tiago Splitter falls to our pick, or if the Jazz are in love with JJ Reddick or Randy Foye, someone who just might be an important clog in our works, then let’s just draft them and hope for the best. The worst part of the draft for our team is that there are few secrets, and fewer teams that make a mistake on draft day. It does happen, so you just have to see how the cards fall and make contingencies. Don’t count on it. You can, however, if you’re patient and willing to wait a couple of years, get someone who could become an all-star. Think Andre Kirilenko, Manu Ginobli, Michael Redd....The NBA is full of them, but there’s a lot fewer of them than the high picks that showed potential but were million dollar flops. The NBA draft has been described as a crap shoot. I think that’s being kind and a gross overstatement. You never really know what you’re going to get, even with a high draft pick. In that respect, it’s totally unlike it’s closest relative, the NFL draft. GM’s, scouts and gurus all have a pretty good track record, so much so that they are surprised when someone doesn’t turn out the way they expected. It’s just the opposite in the NBA, for ouiji boards, spiritual advisors, and heads/tails abound on draft day. They may think they know, but be sure they’re holding their fingers crossed and not sleeping well the night before. Let’s for a while pretend that I’m the GM of the Jazz, and what I say goes. Here’s what I’m looking for at our picks.(from New Jersey, remember?) 1. Defensive center. Forget scoring, forget Tim Duncan. Think more of Theo Ratliff at his best, or a poor man’s Bill Russell. Shot blocker, rebounder. That’s what we need. We have plenty of scoring potential. 2. Scoring potential. Forget what I just said. We need shooters. Three point shooters, mid-range shooters, slashers, dunkers.....Michael Redd or a reincarnation of Jeff Hornacek would do just fine. 3. Athleticism. We need athletes. Athletes who can defend as well as score, athletes who can create their own shot, play the two man game. The NBA has devolved into a league where Kobe’s and Lebron’s dominate. The problem is that they only come along once in ten years or so. So where does that leave us? Forget trading up for Brandon Roy, although he’s the best shooting guard and most complete player in the draft. The Jazz have a young man already on the team they’re counting on for big things in the future. Besides, Brandon Roy’s cost would ultimately hurt the team in the long run. It’s a sad state of the draft when I say he’s the only one I covet we could reasonably expect to trade picks and players to exchange. Tyrus Thomas, Lamarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison.......I just don’t see any one of these players as locks to be an all star for ten years, and they’re the best players in the draft. Sad. Besides, it would take a Carlos Boozer, Memo, or Kirilenko type player to even come close to getting that pick. Not a chance in hades I’m giving up one of the cornerstones of our team for a gamble. If by some miracle Tiago Splitter falls to us, or the Jazz are convinced that JJ really is the second coming of Jeff Hornacek, that stops the whole process right there. If not............. Trade down. Let’s be clear about what we’re talking about here. Players in the last half of the first and second round are not immediate help. The reason they’re in the late first or second round is that they lack skills because they need time to develop them, or they don’t have the athleticism in the first place to acquire those skills. Forget the players without athleticism. That just isn’t going to cut it if you want a championship. Here are some athletes I like in the late first. 1. Saer Sene. Shot blocker, rebounder. Incredibly long, with a 7'8" wingspan. That means he plays a lot taller than his listed seven foot. He has only played the game for three years, and is better than M’Benga of Dallas right now. Quick as a cat, graceful, and would look great in a Jazz uniform. It’s about time the Jazz have a player of his ilk. Nineteen years old. Big upside. Huge upside. If he scores once in a while, averages four blocks a game and ten rebounds......great. Is improving at a remarkable rate. Raw and needs work on offense. Worth the gamble. 2. Rudy Fernandez. Nineteen years old as well. 6'6", long, quick, best young dunker in Europe and is fearless in traffic even though he’s skinny. Great shooter, has tremendous passing skills for a shooting guard. Nice kid, quiet. Perhaps the most talented athletic young player in Europe. Needs strength and bulk. The rest of his game is there. 3.Maurice Ager. Michigan State grad. 6'5", 220, fantastic athlete who will dunk in traffic over anybody. Great shooter, has tremendous three point range. Needs to work on consistency and might be shorter than the height listed. Has great wingspan, plays taller. Nice kid as well. 4. Sergio Rodriguez. Here’s a surprise. He’s a 6'3" point with great speed, terrific ball handler and passer. Decent shooter and getting better all the time. Flashy, but ahead of Raul Lopez at his age, the Raul Lopez we never saw that was faster and more talented than Tony Parker when they played against each other. Again, great athlete, with a bit of attitude. Doesn’t back down from anyone. While I like Keith and admire Milt for his guts if not his talent, we could really use a talented backup for Deron. He’d fill the bill. Second round. 1. Yotam Halperin. 6'5" PG-SG. Great shooter, good passer, plays mostly point. Not as athletic as Fernandez or Ager. Tough kid. Several mocks have the Jazz drafting him already. 2.Solomon Jones. 6'10". C-PF. Long, very athletic shot blocker and rebounder on a horrible Big East team(South Florida). Shows soft touch, good free throw shooter with good form, but is a work in progress at the offensive end of the court. Skinny, but his body is just catching up with his height. Late bloomer, was four inches shorter when he came to South Florida out of Jr. College. MVP of Portsmouth, but only one player from that tournament was drafted last year. Definitely worth a shot at a second round pick. 3.Marco Benialli. 6'5" shooting guard from Italy. Very athletic, was the team’s lock down defender. Great range, not as skinny as Fernandez, but doesn’t possess his passing skills. Still, a very good athlete in the Brent Barry mold. 4. Bobby Jones.6'7" Wing from Washington. So-so shooter and scorer, but looks like a pro from the word go. Potential lock down defender in the Bowen or Artest mold but not the offensive player. Great kid. Stock is climbing, so he might not be available at our picks as they now stand. 5. Mike Gansey. 6'4" SG . Slightly undersized, not a great athlete. Still, he’s a great shooter with a lot of intangibles. Great kid, pressure shooter supreme, put on one of the great shows in NCAA tourney history last year in the two overtime games. Kids like him have a history of making it in the NBA despite physical limitations. Sometimes guts is enough. In a perfect world, and it’s my world so it better be, here is the draft for the Jazz. 21. (from Nets)- Saer Sene C- 7'0", 230 22.(from Nets)-Rudy Fernandez SG-6'6", 185 46. Yotam Helperin-SG-PG 6'5" 210 47. Solomon Jones-C-PF, 6'10" 225 If need be, fill in with alternatives. Yes, the Jazz are already young, and that’s four more young players. But isn’t that the idea of the draft? Throw enough stuff at the wall and something is going to stick. If you’re lucky it doesn’t smell and might be considered art. If just one of those players becomes something special, it’s a great draft. If two of them become permanent fixtures on the Jazz, it’s a incredible draft. It addresses needs and makes the Jazz more athletic for future runs at the championship. Above all, make the most of our fourteenth pick, even if that means trading down to get the most value out of it. What the Jazz need to remember and realize is that they are only one or two players away from contending in a couple of years. They’re like the blind man feeling the leg of the elephant, and it’s damn well time they realized there’s a whole lot of pachyderm attached to that leg. Don’t panic, just lean back and look up. Then hold on, because they’s a change a comin’. I’m starting to like those odds. Deal the damn cards